July 12th, 2010

Posted On July 12, 2010

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Excellent cool mornings and nights and prefect 80 degree blue sky days are helping to keep Steamboat full of people. An Article in the Denver Post shows the number of listings has been increasing all year to 23,240, a year ago there were 20,853, about 15% less. They are back to September 2008 levels of inventory, which means the market is going the wrong way.

Steamboat has 304 houses, and 429 condos on the market; the highest number ever. The last three months or so have shown a decrease in the number of pending properties. We expected a slow down with the tax credit expiration. But it’s too much of a slow down. Steamboat eventually will be a great real estate investment. Just telling it like it is! www.SkiTownRealty.net to get seller tips or email me!

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July 5th, 2010

Posted On July 5, 2010

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Happy 4th of July weekend, what a blast! Check out photos of my new listing. $164,900 for a 2bd/2ba on the mountain! We currently have 1431 listings on the market, year to date we have sold 203. So during 2010 we should sell about the same as last year (400) which gives us about a 43 month supply of inventory, things are not improving fast enough to get to a stable market in a year from now. I went to the new urbanism conference showing the flow of people out of the suburbs and into the city making for more expensive real estate close to downtown and greener city. The presenter said a double dip recession is probable. I also went to an economic forecast seminar showing a very flat recovery at the level we are currently at; I asked about a double dip and the presenter said it’s a real possibility.

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June 28th, 2010

Posted On June 28, 2010

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Happy Monday AM, just in case you weren’t listening, Refinance NOW!…..IF you can. My Open House yesterday was good – beautiful days in da boat! There is a cute red house on 7th in old town that’s a steal at $479,000. And there is a foreclosure just off Fish Creek Falls rd at $513,000 that’s a steal too. Condo’s start at $95,000 – easy second home and local entry purchase. Check out photo’s of my open house listing:

June 23rd, 2010

Posted On June 23, 2010

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I can’t believe I haven’t mentioned this; interest rates are lower than they ever have been and ever will be, refinance NOW. Lock in at least a 5 year ARM, preferably 30 year fixed at 4.75%. 3.5% for a 7 year ARM is outstanding. May existing home sales were down 2.2%, it was predicted to be higher with the tax credit ending, making experts believe the excitement for the tax credit dissipated toward the end. There are some politicians trying to extend the tax credit, I’m guessing this won’t happen.

June 14, 2010

Posted On June 14, 2010

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The market is stinky, but the lilacs are blooming. There were two great deals on tour last Tuesday. I reviewed a class on press releases and got some earnest money delivered with a seller’s property disclosure. Does anyone know someone with a front load newer washer/dryer or an enclosed trailer to sell? Anyone want to buy a snow mobile? Jackson says thanks for a great social weekend.
http://www.SkiTownRealty.net

June 11th, 2010

Posted On June 11, 2010

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We got a buyer under contract for 11% less than asking price on a nice newer short sale home. I went to the Building Systems seminar last week illustrating sustainable construction practices, finished efficiency, and indoor air quality. Had an inspection last week with no big problems, that’s always a good thing. Also re-shot some listing photos now that the tenant is out – it looks sooo much better. And had a short sale class last week – very good class; it’s my third in two months. Bring on the afternoon thunderstorms, check Steamboat Springs weather at http://www.SkiTownRealty.net!

June 1st, 2010

Posted On June 1, 2010

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It has been a busy week in the Steamboat real estate world. Not because activity is picking up, most brokers say the last few weeks we have been slowing down.

٠ The tax credit expiring is why buyers who were going to buy, did.

٠ With spring in Steamboat, more sellers are putting their places on the market.

I took part in a seminar about marketing on the web which was pretty good and I’m hoping to implement some of the ideas pretty quick. There was a big article in the Denver Post Sunday which highlighted Steamboat. Steamboat did $125 million in sales during the first three months of the year with 312 transactions. Our under $300,000 market is by far the most active which is representative of a market building a bottom, so that’s good news. We still have a third the sales volume we need to burn through our excess inventory so prices can stabilize.

There are currently 1275 listings on the market and during the first half of the year we have sold 167 properties. If that rate continues through the year, then we currently have a four year supply of homes available. We need to be at one year to have price stability.

Marcus & Millichap had a nice summary of the national real estate market in there recent blog post: http://blog.marcusmillichap.com/

If things don’t pick up pretty quickly this summer, Ski Town Realty will be revising the recovery forecast down AGAIN. Hope for job recovery across the US. As always stay up to date with my blog at http://www.SkiTownRealty.net

Article in the Steamboat Pilot

Posted On May 16, 2010

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A small portion of my May Steamboat real estate price forecast was printed in the Steamboat Pilot newspaper on Sunday. The complete report is available on my web site in Microsoft Word format, available here: http://www.skitownrealty.net/Selling/page_2307591.html

Spring weather is here! Everything is flowering and budding!

April 25th, 2010 Recovery

Posted On April 25, 2010

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April 25

Steamboat real estate market statistics is a bit of an obsession of mine. They predicted the market collapse and will guide us out of price depreciation. Before we can view the local market we must make sure the national market is not going to derail the recovery Steamboat is making.

More people are buying homes and we are well off the slowest point of mid 2008. The months supply is back down to a stable point and approaching a sellers market. The recession ended in 2009.

Mr. Bernanke and the fed will keep interest rates historically low although they will still rise from here consistently for several years. The fed is aware of the housing problems still prevalent in the world and will not do anything to disrupt the recovery.

The two biggest factors to watch in this recovery are the foreclosure turn around and the unemployment problem. Unemployment picture has been improving for about 5 months now. There are predictions we will go from our current 9.7% to 10.3% by year end. There are other predictions that we will see modest improvement each month of .1%. Either way, we are no longer escalating higher like we did during the recession. We are on the mend and improving faster than we did during either of the last two recessions.

Thursday RealtyTrac announced that foreclosure filings set a record in March, 2010 with filings reported on 367,056 properties. This is the highest since they began reporting in January 2005. Again we have a silver lining or two. More than half of the foreclosures are in 4 states, so it’s not a completely national problem. The second silver lining is that the pace of foreclosures is subsiding for the most troubled states where the number of foreclosures peaked in the 1Q of 2009. Foreclosures are a lagging indicator so as employment gets better, foreclosures will follow. But the increases each month are becoming less and less and a turn around is evident.

The home price index below shows that the prices across the country have stabilized. In many areas, prices are expected to rise by more than 10% during 2010.

On to Steamboat; the months of inventory has been decreasing from 60 at the peak to about 40 now. Depending on what market segment your are looking at. The months of supply peaked about a year ago and since then the number of properties on the market has fallen and the number of pending (under contract) properties has increased. The ratio now is about 5% and needs to be between 10-15% for the market to be stable. This movement can come very fast; looking back at the January 2008 jump with the Interwest purchase. The fastest it will probably happen now is about 4-5 months and could take a year. The demand has been outpacing supply for a year now and we are slowly digging our selves out of inventory abundance.

In SUMMARY the national market is on the mend and shouldn’t slow down the Steamboat Springs real estate recovery. It is possible that Steamboat will reach a price stable point by year end but more likely it will be next spring. The chance of the market stagnating through 2011 is very small. And interest rates will be higher at that point. Economist polled say interest rates will increase by .7% by year end 2010 and maybe another 1% by the end of 2011. Visit www.SkiTownRealty.net for Steamboat information.

April 8th, 2010

Posted On April 8, 2010

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The spring selling season has begun! More places are coming on the market and more places are going under contract. It is a small looking up turn but it’s the best the single family home market has been in about a year and a half. Take a look at the chart of just 2010:

Number of single family houses active and pending during 2010

You might notice there is a lot of active compared to pending. There is about a 2 ½ year supply, where as a stable market has about a one year supply. We still have a year of moderate price correction. Take a look at the same chart for condominiums:

Number of condos under contract and pending in 2010.

Although the market has been improving just like the single family market, the condo market has a 4 year supply. This is due to the second home owner condos where the financing is difficult to get. The local condos are selling okay, but their prices are hurting due to the second home owner condos driving this segment of the market down.

Speaking of local condominiums; I just listed a sweet place to call home – check it out: www.SkiTownRealty.net. It’s almost new being built in 2005 and is an easy access location to everything for only $239,900. See my ad in the paper: http://www.steamboatpilot.com/eEdition/, and in the Local paper: http://www.thesteamboatlocal.com/.

I’m also working with a buyer looking for a $900,000ish house with privacy preferable in old town. I also have a buyer looking for a house outside of Steamboat up to $380,000. And a buyer looking for a place in town which is 3 bedrooms and up to about $350,000. If you know anyone, please send them my way! All referrals always welcome.

Happy mud season!

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